Skip to main content

Geospatial Analysis of Soil Moisture Trends and Implications for Economic Vulnerability in Ghana

This analysis investigates the impact of climate-related shocks on social protection beneficiaries in Ghana. By examining long-term changes in soil surface moisture, a key proxy for precipitation and agricultural drought, the project aims to identify regions with increasing vulnerability to climate change. This analysis is critical for designing effective social protection programs and climate adaptation policies that target the most at-risk populations.

Methodology and Data

To conduct this analysis, I utilized geospatial data and cloud-computing platforms:

  • Data Source: The analysis relies on the GLDAS (Global Land Data Assimilation System), a NASA-supported system providing reliable, long-term climate monitoring data.

  • Analytical Tool: Google Earth Engine (GEE) was employed to process and analyze large-scale satellite data, mapping soil surface moisture across Ghana's districts from 2000.

  • Visualizations: The analysis produced (1) a time-series animation illustrating monthly soil moisture variability throughout the year and (2) a longitudinal GIF mapping the progressive changes in moisture levels over two decades.

Key Findings

Alarming drying trend: 20.2% decline in soil moisture from 2000-2005 to 2018-2023, with national January averages dropping from 16.6 mm to 13.3 mm.

Spatial patterns reveal regional vulnerability:

Southwestern Ghana (traditional forest/agricultural belt): Most dramatic drying - transitioned from vibrant green (high moisture) to yellow-tan, indicating loss of the region's characteristic humidity

Northern regions: Already arid (dark brown), showing little change because they were already dry

Eastern coastal corridor: Retains some moisture (green patches), likely due to coastal influences

Central transition zone: Progressive browning across all periods

Temporal progression shows acceleration:

2000-2005: Strong moisture gradient from wet south to dry north
2006-2011: First major decline (-2.9 mm, -17.5%)
2012-2017: Continued decline to 13.2 mm
2018-2023: Slight recovery to 13.3 mm, but nowhere near baseline


Economic & Climate Implications

The observed drying trends have profound implications for Ghana's economy and food security:

  1. Increased Agricultural Vulnerability: The significant moisture loss, particularly in the northern agricultural regions, points to increased drought vulnerability. This directly threatens crop yields, livestock health, and the livelihoods of smallholder farmers who form the backbone of the rural economy.

  2. Impact on Food Security: Reduced agricultural productivity can lead to localized food shortages, increased food price volatility, and a greater reliance on food aid, placing significant strain on social protection systems.

  3. Water Resource Scarcity: The decline in soil moisture is indicative of broader hydrological stress, impacting the availability of water for consumption, sanitation, and irrigation.

  4. Policy & Investment: This data provides clear evidence of asymmetric climate impacts within Ghana. It underscores the urgent need for targeted economic interventions, such as investment in drought-resistant crops, improved water management infrastructure, and the expansion of social safety nets in the increasingly vulnerable northern regions.



Comments

Post a Comment

Constructive feedback is always welcome. Thank you

Popular posts from this blog

Modeling Core PCE inflation: A dual approach

Today's release of the August 2025 Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data drew widespread media attention, with coverage highlighting both the persistence of inflation and its implications for Federal Reserve policy. Across outlets, analysts pointed to resilient consumer spending and income growth as signs of underlying economic strength, even as inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target. The consensus among media reports is that while inflation is not worsening, its stubbornness continues to challenge policymakers navigating a softening labor market and evolving rate expectations. To provide deeper insights into inflation's trajectory, I've developed a forecasting framework that combines two econometric approaches — ARIMA time series modeling and Phillips Curve analysis—to predict Core PCE inflation. This analysis presents a unique opportunity to validate my forecasting methodology against eight months of 2025 data. ...
Post a Comment
Read more

Mapping the Blast Radius: What Happens When the "World's Factory" Stops?

In global trade, "efficiency" often masks "fragility." We know that China is central to the global electronics supply chain, but how central? And if that node were to go dark, who would feel the shockwaves first? To answer this, I moved beyond standard trade statistics and built a network simulation using the OECD Inter-Country Input-Output (ICIO) Tables (2023 Edition) . This dataset maps the DNA of the global economy, tracking every dollar of input across 66 countries and 45 industries. 1. The Blast Radius: Tracing the Contagion I treated the global economy as a directed graph and simulated a total supply shock to Chinese Electronics (CHN_C26) . By tracing the flow of inputs across three tiers of buyers, I visualized the "Blast Radius" of this disruption. Fig 1: The Supply Chain Cascade. The shock originates in China (Red) and immediately hits "Tier 1" assembly hubs (Dark Blue) before cascading to global consumers...
Post a Comment
Read more

Turkey's Informality Tax

A general-equilibrium model of Turkey's dual labour market says the cost of taxing formal work doesn't show up where we usually look for it. The bottomline: Making Turkey's transfer to the unemployed a third more generous raises unemployment from 8.6% to 9.2% . That is the honest cost, and it is not large. How you pay for it matters more than whether you pay for it. Funded by payroll taxes, the poor end up 0.6% worse off than before the transfer was raised — the policy defeats itself. Funded by VAT, they are 0.5% better off . The reason is not unemployment, which is nearly identical under both. It is informality . A higher payroll tax pushes formal jobs into the unregistered sector, where the wage is 43% lower and nothing is taxed. Turkey is not on the wrong side of the payroll-tax Laffer curve — revenue peaks around 53%, well above today's ~37.5% wedge. But the marginal cost...
Post a Comment
Read more