Lelo Nxumalo

AI and Public Finance · Türkiye Most of the debate about AI and labor markets is a debate about workers. Almost none of it is about the entity standing quietly behind every payroll. Moving from employment-share exposure to labor-tax-revenue exposure changes which occupations matter — and which policies do. Results draw on ongoing joint work with Dhushyanth Raju applying the Richmond (2026) AI transition framework to Türkiye's 2024 Household Labour Force Survey Most of the debate about AI and labor markets is a debate about workers: who gets displaced, who gets augmented, who gets retrained. Almost none of it is about the entity standing quietly behind every payroll: the treasury. Governments in most middle- and high-income countries raise roughly half of their revenue from labor — personal income tax plus social security contributions. If AI-driven capital deepening shifts factor income from labor toward capital, that base erodes at precisely the ...