Our
results show that in 2016/17, there were approximately 1.2 million individuals whose skill profile based on current work is proximate to
the skill profile of a higher paying occupation. We call these STARs after Blair et al (2020). Of these, 46 percent were workers with less than post-secondary education in low
wage occupations who have skills to transition to a higher wage role in their
wage category. Another 344,840 (28.3 percent) were workers with less than post-secondary education in middle wage occupations who
have skills to transition to a higher wage role in their wage category. An
estimated 292,151 (23.9 percent) were non-post-secondary-educated workers who have skillsets to transition to higher
wage work. Finally, there were just 18,379 (1.5 percent) workers with less than
post-secondary education who are in high-wage roles.
Today's release of the August 2025 Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data drew widespread media attention, with coverage highlighting both the persistence of inflation and its implications for Federal Reserve policy. Across outlets, analysts pointed to resilient consumer spending and income growth as signs of underlying economic strength, even as inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target. The consensus among media reports is that while inflation is not worsening, its stubbornness continues to challenge policymakers navigating a softening labor market and evolving rate expectations. To provide deeper insights into inflation's trajectory, I've developed a forecasting framework that combines two econometric approaches — ARIMA time series modeling and Phillips Curve analysis—to predict Core PCE inflation. This analysis presents a unique opportunity to validate my forecasting methodology against eight months of 2025 data. ...
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