Executive Summary Between 2017 and 2025, U.S. trade policy underwent two dramatic transformations. The 2018-19 trade war elevated tariff rates from 1.5% to 6% . Then in 2025, tariffs spiked to 52% before reversing to 13% . China's import share collapsed from 21.6% to 8.7% , while Mexico and Vietnam captured market share across all categories. Part I: The Tariff Timeline 2017 Baseline: Era of Low Tariffs U.S. average tariff rate: 1.5% — lowest in modern history Reflected decades of trade liberalization through WTO framework 2018-19 Trade War: First Escalation July 2018: First Section 301 tariffs (25% on $34B Chinese imports) → rate jumps to 2.8% ...
Economics, Data Science, Consulting. (Views are my own)