🚨 Executive Summary For decades, agricultural policy has focused on rainfall variability. A 24-year econometric analysis (2000–2023) reveals a more urgent threat: Heat Stress . Rising temperatures have become the dominant driver of declining crop health in Ghana. I have identified two critical "tipping points" that threaten the Northern breadbasket and the Cocoa economy by 2040. 1. The Evidence: Heat is the New Dominant Driver Using Fixed Effects regression models on satellite data from 2000 to 2023, I isolated the impact of temperature and rainfall on vegetation health (NDVI). NDVI it = β 1 Temp it + β 2 Rain it + α zone + γ year + ε it Model Specification: Where α zone controls for static location factors (soil/elevation) and γ year controls for global time trends. The results were conclusive: Temperature is the binding constraint. Fi...
Economics, Data Science, Consulting. (Views are my own)