Skip to main content

South America Land Use Transformation (2001-2021)

This analysis reveals significant land use changes across South America over two decades. The most striking trend is agricultural expansion at the expense of natural ecosystems. Croplands surged by 225,461 km² (+39.2%), while Evergreen Broadleaf Forests—primarily the Amazon—declined by 287,426 km² (-4.4%). This forest loss, equivalent to roughly the size of Italy, underscores ongoing deforestation pressures.

Critical Findings:
  • Grasslands expanded dramatically by 349,686 km² (+10.0%), potentially reflecting forest conversion to pasture
  • Permanent Wetlands experienced a catastrophic 49.9% decline, losing nearly 150,000 km², raising concerns about ecosystem services and biodiversity
  • Savannas contracted by 128,693 km² (-3.5%)

The spatial pattern shows concentrated deforestation along the "arc of deforestation" in Brazil's Amazon region, with agricultural expansion visible in the Cerrado and Gran Chaco regions.

Global Context: UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2024

The UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2024 identifies agriculture, forestry, and other land uses (AFOLU) as having the second-largest decarbonization potential globally, with forestry representing the largest component. The report emphasizes that forests hold "real promise for sweeping and fast emissions cuts" needed to limit warming to 1.5°C.

The South American deforestation documented in this analysis directly undermines these mitigation goals. With global greenhouse gas emissions reaching a record 57.1 GtCO2e in 2023, the loss of 287,426 km² of evergreen broadleaf forests represents a significant setback to AFOLU-based climate solutions. The UNEP report warns that nations must cut emissions by 42% by 2030 and 57% by 2035 to stay on track for 1.5°C—targets that become increasingly difficult as carbon-sequestering forests are converted to agricultural land.

The observed land use transformation in South America highlights the urgent tension between agricultural expansion and the climate mitigation potential that intact ecosystems provide.

Data Sources & Methodology

Primary Data Source: MODIS Land Cover Type Product (MCD12Q1 v061)

  • Classification System: IGBP (International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme) - 17 land cover classes
  • Spatial Resolution: 500m native resolution
  • Temporal Coverage: 2001-2022 (biennial sampling: 2001, 2003, 2005, ..., 2021)
  • Processing Scale: 1km for area calculations to optimize computational efficiency
  • Geographic Extent: South America bounding box (82°W-34°W, 56°S-13°N)
  • Area Calculation: Pixel-based summation using Earth Engine's pixelArea() function, grouped by IGBP land cover class
  • Processing Platform: Google Earth Engine (Project: ee-greatchiefster)

Analytical Approach: No temporal aggregation was performed; each year represents a discrete annual land cover snapshot from MODIS. Area changes were calculated by comparing pixel-level classifications across time periods.

Classification Categories: 17 IGBP classes including Evergreen/Deciduous Forests, Shrublands, Savannas, Grasslands, Croplands, Wetlands, Urban, Barren, Snow/Ice, and Water Bodies.

References:

  • MODIS Land Cover Type Product. (2023). MCD12Q1 MODIS/Terra+Aqua Land Cover Type Yearly L3 Global 500m SIN Grid. NASA EOSDIS Land Processes DAAC.
  • United Nations Environment Programme. (2024). Emissions Gap Report 2024: No more hot air … please! Nairobi. https://doi.org/10.59117/20.500.11822/46404

Analysis Date: November 17, 2025

Comments

Post a Comment

Constructive feedback is always welcome. Thank you

Popular posts from this blog

Unemployment by state in the USA

Below is a visualization of unemployment rates by county using a powerful Python library called Bokeh . The two maps are for the states of Texas and the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. As the second largest economy in the United States (10th largest in the world), Texas shows interesting county variation in macroeconomic factors such as unemployment. According to Wikipedia , in 2015, Texas was home to six of the top 50 companies on the Fortune 500 list and 51 overall (third most after New York and California). The northern counties were least affected by the financial crisis of 2008/09. Dallas–Fort Worth–Arlington area encompasses 13 counties which constitute the economic and cultural hub of the region commonly called North Texas or North Central Texas. Bokeh Plot The least affected counties in Massachusetts were the southernmost tourist areas of Nantuckett and Dukes County. The ...
Post a Comment
Read more

Modeling Core PCE inflation: A dual approach

Today's release of the August 2025 Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data drew widespread media attention, with coverage highlighting both the persistence of inflation and its implications for Federal Reserve policy. Across outlets, analysts pointed to resilient consumer spending and income growth as signs of underlying economic strength, even as inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target. The consensus among media reports is that while inflation is not worsening, its stubbornness continues to challenge policymakers navigating a softening labor market and evolving rate expectations. To provide deeper insights into inflation's trajectory, I've developed a forecasting framework that combines two econometric approaches — ARIMA time series modeling and Phillips Curve analysis—to predict Core PCE inflation. This analysis presents a unique opportunity to validate my forecasting methodology against eight months of 2025 data. ...
Post a Comment
Read more

Do Minimum Wage Increases Really Kill Jobs? Evidence from the "Fight for $15" Era

The debate over minimum wage policy has raged for decades, with economists, policymakers, and business leaders offering sharply different predictions about its effects on employment. Critics warn that raising the minimum wage will force employers to cut jobs, while supporters argue that higher wages boost worker productivity and spending power. But what does the actual data tell us. Using a comprehensive difference-in-differences analysis and Federal Reserve Economic Data covering 43 U.S. states from 2012-2020 of the "Fight for $15" movement between 2012 and 2020, I provide some evidence about how minimum wage increases actually affect employment in the real world. The Perfect Natural Experiment The period from 2012 to 2020 provided economists with an ideal "natural experiment" to study minimum wage effects. Here's why this timeframe was perfect for analysis: Federal Stability : The federal minimum wage remained frozen at $7.25 per hour since 2009, creating ...
Post a Comment
Read more