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Geospatial Analysis of Soil Moisture Trends and Implications for Economic Vulnerability in Ghana

This analysis investigates the impact of climate-related shocks on social protection beneficiaries in Ghana. By examining long-term changes in soil surface moisture, a key proxy for precipitation and agricultural drought, the project aims to identify regions with increasing vulnerability to climate change. This analysis is critical for designing effective social protection programs and climate adaptation policies that target the most at-risk populations.

Methodology and Data

To conduct this analysis, I utilized geospatial data and cloud-computing platforms:

  • Data Source: The analysis relies on the GLDAS (Global Land Data Assimilation System), a NASA-supported system providing reliable, long-term climate monitoring data.

  • Analytical Tool: Google Earth Engine (GEE) was employed to process and analyze large-scale satellite data, mapping soil surface moisture across Ghana's districts from 2000.

  • Visualizations: The analysis produced (1) a time-series animation illustrating monthly soil moisture variability throughout the year and (2) a longitudinal GIF mapping the progressive changes in moisture levels over two decades.

Key Findings

Alarming drying trend: 20.2% decline in soil moisture from 2000-2005 to 2018-2023, with national January averages dropping from 16.6 mm to 13.3 mm.

Spatial patterns reveal regional vulnerability:

Southwestern Ghana (traditional forest/agricultural belt): Most dramatic drying - transitioned from vibrant green (high moisture) to yellow-tan, indicating loss of the region's characteristic humidity

Northern regions: Already arid (dark brown), showing little change because they were already dry

Eastern coastal corridor: Retains some moisture (green patches), likely due to coastal influences

Central transition zone: Progressive browning across all periods

Temporal progression shows acceleration:

2000-2005: Strong moisture gradient from wet south to dry north
2006-2011: First major decline (-2.9 mm, -17.5%)
2012-2017: Continued decline to 13.2 mm
2018-2023: Slight recovery to 13.3 mm, but nowhere near baseline


Economic & Climate Implications

The observed drying trends have profound implications for Ghana's economy and food security:

  1. Increased Agricultural Vulnerability: The significant moisture loss, particularly in the northern agricultural regions, points to increased drought vulnerability. This directly threatens crop yields, livestock health, and the livelihoods of smallholder farmers who form the backbone of the rural economy.

  2. Impact on Food Security: Reduced agricultural productivity can lead to localized food shortages, increased food price volatility, and a greater reliance on food aid, placing significant strain on social protection systems.

  3. Water Resource Scarcity: The decline in soil moisture is indicative of broader hydrological stress, impacting the availability of water for consumption, sanitation, and irrigation.

  4. Policy & Investment: This data provides clear evidence of asymmetric climate impacts within Ghana. It underscores the urgent need for targeted economic interventions, such as investment in drought-resistant crops, improved water management infrastructure, and the expansion of social safety nets in the increasingly vulnerable northern regions.



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