The Kennedy School Admissions Blog Helps Spread the Word About APJ 2014

Ahead of the release of the 9th Volume of the Africa Policy Journal, the Harvard Kennedy School Admissions Blog highlighted our work in an email sent to current and prospective students. Read more here.

Thank you to all our supporters. The 2014 print edition comes out mid-April. Pre-order yours today!!

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Unemployment by state in the USA

Below is a visualization of unemployment rates by county using a powerful Python library called Bokeh . The two maps are for the states of Texas and the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. As the second largest economy in the United States (10th largest in the world), Texas shows interesting county variation in macroeconomic factors such as unemployment. According to Wikipedia , in 2015, Texas was home to six of the top 50 companies on the Fortune 500 list and 51 overall (third most after New York and California). The northern counties were least affected by the financial crisis of 2008/09. Dallas–Fort Worth–Arlington area encompasses 13 counties which constitute the economic and cultural hub of the region commonly called North Texas or North Central Texas. Bokeh Plot The least affected counties in Massachusetts were the southernmost tourist areas of Nantuckett and Dukes County. The ...

Modeling Core PCE inflation: A dual approach

Today's release of the August 2025 Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data drew widespread media attention, with coverage highlighting both the persistence of inflation and its implications for Federal Reserve policy. Across outlets, analysts pointed to resilient consumer spending and income growth as signs of underlying economic strength, even as inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target. The consensus among media reports is that while inflation is not worsening, its stubbornness continues to challenge policymakers navigating a softening labor market and evolving rate expectations. To provide deeper insights into inflation's trajectory, I've developed a forecasting framework that combines two econometric approaches — ARIMA time series modeling and Phillips Curve analysis—to predict Core PCE inflation. This analysis presents a unique opportunity to validate my forecasting methodology against eight months of 2025 data. ...

Do Minimum Wage Increases Really Kill Jobs? Evidence from the "Fight for $15" Era

The debate over minimum wage policy has raged for decades, with economists, policymakers, and business leaders offering sharply different predictions about its effects on employment. Critics warn that raising the minimum wage will force employers to cut jobs, while supporters argue that higher wages boost worker productivity and spending power. But what does the actual data tell us. Using a comprehensive difference-in-differences analysis and Federal Reserve Economic Data covering 43 U.S. states from 2012-2020 of the "Fight for $15" movement between 2012 and 2020, I provide some evidence about how minimum wage increases actually affect employment in the real world. The Perfect Natural Experiment The period from 2012 to 2020 provided economists with an ideal "natural experiment" to study minimum wage effects. Here's why this timeframe was perfect for analysis: Federal Stability : The federal minimum wage remained frozen at $7.25 per hour since 2009, creating ...