Lelo Nxumalo

Today's release of the August 2025 Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data drew widespread media attention, with coverage highlighting both the persistence of inflation and its implications for Federal Reserve policy. Across outlets, analysts pointed to resilient consumer spending and income growth as signs of underlying economic strength, even as inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target. The consensus among media reports is that while inflation is not worsening, its stubbornness continues to challenge policymakers navigating a softening labor market and evolving rate expectations. To provide deeper insights into inflation's trajectory, I've developed a forecasting framework that combines two econometric approaches — ARIMA time series modeling and Phillips Curve analysis—to predict Core PCE inflation. This analysis presents a unique opportunity to validate my forecasting methodology against eight months of 2025 data. ...

In the fast-paced world of economic policy and financial markets, waiting for official GDP statistics can feel like an eternity. With quarterly GDP data often released weeks after the quarter ends, economists and policymakers need better tools to understand economic conditions in real-time. Enter GDP nowcasting  – a technique that uses machine learning to predict current-quarter GDP growth using timely economic indicators. What is GDP Nowcasting? GDP nowcasting bridges the gap between economic theory and practical decision-making by providing near real-time estimates of economic growth. Unlike traditional forecasting that predicts future values, nowcasting focuses on estimating the current state of the economy using available high-frequency data. The approach leverages the fact that while GDP data comes with a lag, many related economic indicators are available much sooner – employment figures, industrial production, retail sales, and consumer sentiment surveys are all published...