Lelo Nxumalo

How do we measure the impact of a policy? In a laboratory, you have a control group. In the real world, we only have one California. We cannot observe the "counterfactual"—a parallel universe where California never passed its landmark Cap-and-Trade bill (AB 32) in 2013. However, using econometrics and Python , we can build that parallel universe. Using the Synthetic Control Method (SCM) , I analyzed real-world energy data to estimate the true impact of carbon pricing on California's emissions. Here is what the data says. The Methodology The Synthetic Control Method estimates the effect of an intervention (the policy) by comparing the treated unit (California) to a weighted combination of control units (other US states) that did not implement the policy. To ensure a robust "apples-to-apples" comparison, I pulled data directly from the EIA Open Data API (v2) , controlling fo...

Understanding labor market transitions is important for policymakers and researchers in developing countries. Changes in economic activity status (employed, unemployed, out of labor force) vary significantly from one country to another and also within countries from one socio-economic group to another. Below I summarize analysis from the latest Ghana Annual Household Income and Expenditure Survey ( AHIES ) published by the Ghana Statistical Service. The AHIES is a panel survey that has followed over 10,000 individuals since 2022Q1 to assess changes in their livelihoods. I am currently analyzing trends and show here what has happened to economic activity between Q2 and Q3.  Transitions in Ghana labor force status, 2022Q2 - 2022Q3 Source : Own analysis using AHIES from Ghana Statistical Service. Note : Left hand side is 2022Q2 and right side is 2022Q3 81 percent of working age individuals (15-64-years) who were  employed  in 2022Q2 were still employed in 2022Q3; 7 perc...