Update (November 13, 2015). Official statistics show that Malaysia grew at 4.7%, higher than the ARIMA forecast of 4.5% below. Read more here . ------ Using seasonally adjusted quarterly GDP data from 2005, I estimate that Malaysia’s economy will grow by approximately 4.8% in 2015 and 4.9% in 2016 . I applied the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to derive quarterly forecasts for 2016 and 2017. Year-on-year growth during 2015Q3 is expected to come in slightly lower (4.5%) than second quarter growth (4.9%) due to EM headwinds from a weakening China, one of Malaysia's leading trade partners. Growth in 2016 might come in higher than ARIMA would predict because the 11th Malaysia plan projects will start to kick in. The country needs to grow by 5-6% per year if it is to reach the high income goal by 2020. (Actual data for 2015Q3 will be made public on November 13th according to the Malaysian economic calendar ). A Note on ARIMA Models With the ARIMA meth...
Economics, Data Science, Consulting